Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.095300 0.106625 0.118380 0.131462 0.145584 0.160338 0.176889
2024-10-20 0.075425 0.091803 0.109827 0.131000 0.155049 0.181378 0.212244
2024-10-27 0.061827 0.081282 0.103846 0.131617 0.164531 0.201955 0.247374
2024-11-03 0.056288 0.078908 0.106295 0.141270 0.184102 0.234211 0.296591
2024-11-10 0.047814 0.071586 0.101638 0.141431 0.191714 0.252125 0.329114
2024-11-17 0.041902 0.066644 0.099167 0.143625 0.201339 0.272256 0.364411
2024-11-24 0.036423 0.061502 0.095745 0.143997 0.208229 0.288800 0.395360
2024-12-01 0.034473 0.061029 0.098379 0.152238 0.225298 0.318351 0.443014
2024-12-08 0.032758 0.060635 0.100938 0.160297 0.242199 0.347941 0.491223
2024-12-15 0.029228 0.057022 0.098516 0.161127 0.249188 0.364618 0.523006
2024-12-22 0.025111 0.051970 0.093516 0.157870 0.250252 0.373296 0.544360
2024-12-29 0.023716 0.051227 0.094870 0.163728 0.263982 0.398978 0.588334
2025-01-05 0.021672 0.049308 0.094505 0.167378 0.275242 0.422332 0.630767
2025-01-12 0.019585 0.047089 0.093524 0.170081 0.285313 0.444453 0.672268
2025-01-19 0.017613 0.044824 0.092271 0.172252 0.294631 0.465739 0.713098
2025-01-26 0.017631 0.046384 0.097460 0.184655 0.319310 0.508882 0.784429
2025-02-02 0.015656 0.043716 0.095230 0.185130 0.326197 0.527151 0.821963
2025-02-09 0.014255 0.042020 0.094517 0.187929 0.336554 0.550438 0.866719
2025-02-16 0.012686 0.039719 0.092512 0.188434 0.343327 0.568635 0.904596
2025-02-23 0.012507 0.040509 0.096182 0.198498 0.365041 0.608697 0.973639
2025-03-02 0.012298 0.041192 0.099657 0.208302 0.386520 0.648707 1.043082
2025-03-09 0.011090 0.039302 0.098080 0.209314 0.394088 0.668369 1.083780
2025-03-16 0.009485 0.036148 0.093786 0.205361 0.393584 0.676052 1.107433